Red Flag Warnings Blanket Five Northern Rockies and Plains States
Critical fire weather triggered Red Flag Warnings across Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, and the Dakotas on Sept. 10, capping an active season in the region.
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In 2025, fire departments serving Paul responded to 34 fire and hazmat incidents — from cooking fires to gas leaks to a single $42K building blaze. Here's the full picture.
Trash or rubbish fire, contained lead by count. Building fires lead by dollars. Together the top five categories make up about 77% of all calls.
Mar peaks. Sep dips. Watch for the typical fall climb starting in October.
192 incidents 2021–2025. Peak year was 2024. $4.2M cumulative property loss.
| Year | Incidents | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | — | |
| 2022 | 39 | +50.0% | |
| 2023 | 40 | +2.6% | |
| 2024 | 53 | +32.5% | |
| 2025 | 34 | -35.8% |
For the 0 building fires Paul departments responded to in 2025, here's how they were classified once investigators were finished.
NFIRS Area of Origin (AREA_ORIG) for the 65 building fires investigators classified across 2021–2025. The room or location where ignition occurred — kitchens, bedrooms, exterior, vehicle areas — tells you where to focus prevention.
| # | Area of origin | Count | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Other | 22 | 33.8% | |
| 2 | Undetermined | 13 | 20.0% | |
| 3 | Engine area, running gear, wheel area | 6 | 9.2% | |
| 4 | Bathroom, checkroom, lavatory, locker room | 3 | 4.6% | |
| 5 | Vehicle area, other | 3 | 4.6% | |
| 6 | Outside area, other | 3 | 4.6% | |
| 7 | Attic: vacant, crawl space above top story, cupola | 2 | 3.1% | |
| 8 | Open area - outside; included are farmland, field | 2 | 3.1% | |
| 9 | Entrance way, lobby | 1 | 1.5% | |
| 10 | Egress/exit, other | 1 | 1.5% | |
| 11 | All other areas | 9 | 13.8% |
NFIRS Heat Source (HEAT_SOURC) — the physical thing that started it. Spark or ember from operating equipment, an open flame, smoking materials, or hot embers from a fireplace are the leading culprits nationwide. Here's the Paul mix.
| # | Heat source | Count | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat source: other | 16 | 24.6% | |
| 2 | Undetermined | 12 | 18.5% | |
| 3 | Hot or smoldering object, other | 11 | 16.9% | |
| 4 | Spark, ember or flame from operating equipment | 6 | 9.2% | |
| 5 | Arcing | 5 | 7.7% | |
| 6 | Heat from powered equipment, other | 4 | 6.2% | |
| 7 | Lightning | 3 | 4.6% | |
| 8 | Radiated, conducted heat from operating equipment | 2 | 3.1% | |
| 9 | Heat from other open flame or smoking materials | 2 | 3.1% | |
| 10 | Match | 2 | 3.1% | |
| 11 | All other sources | 2 | 3.1% |
Largest single-incident property losses reported by Paul departments in 2025. These 6 fires alone account for 100% of the city's annual total.
| # | Property loss | Type | Severity | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $42,000 | Passenger vehicle fire | Significant | Investigated |
| 2 | $12,500 | Fire, other | Significant | Investigated |
| 3 | $8,500 | Passenger vehicle fire | Significant | Investigated |
| 4 | $8,500 | Passenger vehicle fire | Significant | Investigated |
| 5 | $4,000 | Incinerator overload or malfunction, fire confined | Significant | Investigated |
| 6 | $3,500 | Passenger vehicle fire | Significant | Investigated |
Per-capita rates let us compare apples to apples. Paul sits above the national average for incidents per resident.
Top 25 wildfires (1992+) in the FPA-FOD ignitions database, scaled by acres. 1,621,829 acres burned in this 50-mile radius. Each dot is a fire — bigger dots burned more land.
| Year | Cause | Acres | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Natural | 220,042 | 36.7 mi | |
| 1996 | Natural | 178,459 | 35.8 mi | |
| 1992 | Natural | 149,250 | 32.4 mi | |
| 2012 | Natural | 140,954 | 24.5 mi | |
| 1999 | Natural | 132,208 | 39.1 mi | |
| 2020 | Missing data/not specified/undetermined | 90,143 | 40.6 mi | |
| 2012 | Natural | 88,909 | 26.6 mi | |
| 2007 | Natural | 72,361 | 40.2 mi | |
| 2000 | Natural | 53,605 | 40.1 mi | |
| 2017 | Missing data/not specified/undetermined | 49,912 | 44.1 mi | |
| 2005 | Natural | 47,592 | 23.6 mi | |
| 2007 | Power generation/transmission/distribution | 45,862 | 31.9 mi |
Top 2 ZIP codes by NFIRS incident count across 2021–2025. Each ZIP has its own fire profile — dive in for neighborhood-level context.
Six Idaho cities with population within ±25% of Paul. Useful comparison targets — same state, similar size, different fire profile.
1 departments report to NFIRS for incidents in Paul.
A 30-minute weekend can cut your home's exposure substantially. These four checklists are a good starting point.
Numbers reflect incidents reported by participating fire departments to the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) Public Data Release for calendar year 2025. NFIRS is voluntary — about 23,000 of roughly 30,000 US fire departments report — so totals are a strong indicator, not a complete census. Per-capita comparisons use 2023 ACS population estimates. Wildland fire data complements NFIRS with NIFC and USFS perimeters. Active-fire counts come from a dated NIFC snapshot, not a live feed.