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2025 Annual Fire Report

Fires in Willow, Alaska

In 2025, fire departments serving Willow responded to 32 fire and hazmat incidents — from cooking fires to gas leaks to a single $3K building blaze. Here's the full picture.

Updated Sep 27, 2026 Grade C- Peak yr 2021 Matanuska-Susitna Borough 1,952 residents 0 reporting departments 273 5-yr

Incomplete 2025 data. Willow's departments reported 32 incidents to NFIRS for 2025, against about 55 in a typical year, so 2025 figures on this page undercount. The 2021–2025 totals are the better guide.

Total incidents
32
Not comparable with 2024 (incomplete reporting)
Building fires
5
Residential 60% Other 40%
Property loss
$43K
$27K structure · $16K contents
Deaths & injuries
0 / 1
0 civilian deaths · 1 civ injuries · 0 firefighter injuries
01 The mix

What kinds of fires happen here?

Passenger vehicle fire lead by count. Building fires lead by dollars. Together the top five categories make up about 84% of all calls.

32
Total Incidents
Passenger vehicle fire 9 28.1%
Power line down 8 25.0%
Building fires 5 15.6%
Authorized controlled burning 3 9.4%
Chimney or flue fire, confined to chimney or flue 2 6.2%
All other categories 5 15.6%
02 Seasonality

When do fires happen?

Oct peaks. Mar dips. Watch for the typical fall climb starting in October.

Jan 8
Feb 1
Mar 0
Apr 1
May 1
Jun 1
Jul 5
Aug 2
Sep 0
Oct 10
Nov 1
Dec 2
Fewer
More
2b Five-year trend

Year over year in Willow

273 incidents 2021–2025. Peak year was 2021. $2.7M cumulative property loss. 1 civilian deaths.

YearIncidentsYoY 
2021 91 —
2022 55 -39.6%
2023 36 -34.5%
2024 59 +63.9%
2025* 32 —

* Well below Willow's usual volume. That almost always means one or more departments didn't submit a full year to NFIRS, not that fires dropped, so no year-over-year change is shown for it.

03 Cause of ignition

What sparks building fires?

For the 5 building fires Willow departments responded to in 2025, here's how they were classified once investigators were finished.

Unintentional
33%
5
Cause undetermined
7%
1
Intentional / arson
7%
1
Equipment / heat source failure
13%
2
Under investigation
0%
0
Act of nature (lightning)
40%
0
3b Where fires start

Where do fires start in Willow?

NFIRS Area of Origin (AREA_ORIG) for the 111 building fires investigators classified across 2021–2025. The room or location where ignition occurred — kitchens, bedrooms, exterior, vehicle areas — tells you where to focus prevention.

#Area of originCountShare 
1 Open area - outside; included are farmland, field 20 18.0%
2 Engine area, running gear, wheel area 16 14.4%
3 Duct: hvac, cable, exhaust, heating, or AC 8 7.2%
4 Exterior, exposed surface 7 6.3%
5 Undetermined 6 5.4%
6 Cooking area, kitchen 5 4.5%
7 Heating room or area, water heater area 5 4.5%
8 Structural area, other 5 4.5%
9 Ceiling & floor assembly, crawl space b/t stories 5 4.5%
10 Outside area, other 5 4.5%
11 All other areas 29 26.1%
3c What ignited it

What actually ignited the fire?

NFIRS Heat Source (HEAT_SOURC) — the physical thing that started it. Spark or ember from operating equipment, an open flame, smoking materials, or hot embers from a fireplace are the leading culprits nationwide. Here's the Willow mix.

#Heat sourceCountShare 
1 Hot ember or ash 21 18.9%
2 Radiated, conducted heat from operating equipment 15 13.5%
3 Undetermined 13 11.7%
4 Flame/torch used for lighting 8 7.2%
5 Heat spread from another fire, other 8 7.2%
6 Radiated heat from another fire 8 7.2%
7 Spark, ember or flame from operating equipment 6 5.4%
8 Arcing 6 5.4%
9 Cigarette lighter 5 4.5%
10 Match 4 3.6%
11 All other sources 17 15.3%
04 The biggest fires

8 fires · $23K in losses

Largest single-incident property losses reported by Willow departments in 2025. These 8 fires alone account for 85% of the city's annual total.

# Property loss Type Severity Status
1 $3,000 Passenger vehicle fire Significant Investigated
2 $2,900 Building fires Significant Investigated
3 $2,900 Passenger vehicle fire Significant Investigated
4 $2,900 Passenger vehicle fire Significant Investigated
5 $2,900 Passenger vehicle fire Significant Investigated
6 $2,900 Passenger vehicle fire Significant Investigated
7 $2,900 Passenger vehicle fire Significant Investigated
8 $2,900 Camper or recreational vehicle (RV) fire Significant Investigated
05 How Willow compares

Willow vs Alaska vs the nation

Per-capita rates let us compare apples to apples. Willow sits above the national average for incidents per resident.

16.39
Incidents per 1,000 residents
Willow
16.39
AK avg
8.43
US avg
7.48
2.56
Building fires per 1,000 residents
Willow
2.56
AK avg
1.2
US avg
0.85
0
Civilian fire deaths per million
Willow
0
AK avg
19.5
US avg
5.9
5b Who gets hurt

Casualty demographics in Willow

10 fire-related casualties recorded in NFIRS Module 11 across the 2021–2025 window. Age, gender, and severity are coarse-binned — no individual identification possible.

AgeCount 
0-9 1
10-19 2
20-29 1
30-39 2
40-49 2
50-59 1
60-69 1
70-79 0
80+ 0
Civilian vs firefighter
Civilian 8 FF 2
Gender
M 5 F 5 Unk 0
Severity (1=minor → 5=fatal)
3
1
4
2
2
3
0
4
1
5
5c Wildfires nearby

Wildfires within 50 mi of Willow

Top 25 wildfires (1992+) in the FPA-FOD ignitions database, scaled by acres. 67,650 acres burned in this 50-mile radius. Each dot is a fire — bigger dots burned more land.

50 mi radius
YearCauseAcresDistance 
1996 Fireworks 37,336 14.2 mi
2007 Natural 8,494 12.2 mi
2015 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 7,264 10.7 mi
2008 Natural 3,496 35.6 mi
2019 Power generation/transmission/distribution 3,288 18.0 mi
2002 Natural 1,701 28.4 mi
2010 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 1,692 44.0 mi
2019 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 1,314 15.6 mi
2006 Debris and open burning 461 20.6 mi
1999 Debris and open burning 383 31.7 mi
2019 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 367 22.5 mi
2016 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 303 25.8 mi
5d Top ZIPs

Where in Willow do fires concentrate?

Top 4 ZIP codes by NFIRS incident count across 2021–2025. Each ZIP has its own fire profile — dive in for neighborhood-level context.

#ZIP5-yr incidents 
1 99688 270
2 99623 1
3 99655 1
4 99674 1
5e Peer cities

Cities similar to Willow

Six Alaska cities with population within ±25% of Willow. Useful comparison targets — same state, similar size, different fire profile.

07 Stay prepared

Before the next Red Flag day.

A 30-minute weekend can cut your home's exposure substantially. These four checklists are a good starting point.

About this data

Numbers reflect incidents reported by participating fire departments to the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) Public Data Release for calendar year 2025. NFIRS is voluntary — about 23,000 of roughly 30,000 US fire departments report — so totals are a strong indicator, not a complete census. Per-capita comparisons use 2023 ACS population estimates. Wildland fire data complements NFIRS with NIFC and USFS perimeters. Active-fire counts come from a dated NIFC snapshot, not a live feed.