Red Flag Warnings Blanket Five Northern Rockies and Plains States
Critical fire weather triggered Red Flag Warnings across Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, and the Dakotas on Sept. 10, capping an active season in the region.
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In 2025, fire departments serving Horace responded to 40 fire and hazmat incidents — from cooking fires to gas leaks to a single $60K building blaze. Here's the full picture.
Unauthorized burning lead by count. Building fires lead by dollars. Together the top five categories make up about 75% of all calls.
Oct peaks. Mar dips. Watch for the typical fall climb starting in October.
159 incidents 2021–2025. Peak year was 2023. $137K cumulative property loss.
| Year | Incidents | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | — | |
| 2022* | 12 | — | |
| 2023 | 46 | — | |
| 2024 | 35 | -23.9% | |
| 2025 | 40 | +14.3% |
* Well below Horace's usual volume. That almost always means one or more departments didn't submit a full year to NFIRS, not that fires dropped, so no year-over-year change is shown for it.
For the 7 building fires Horace departments responded to in 2025, here's how they were classified once investigators were finished.
NFIRS Area of Origin (AREA_ORIG) for the 43 building fires investigators classified across 2021–2025. The room or location where ignition occurred — kitchens, bedrooms, exterior, vehicle areas — tells you where to focus prevention.
| # | Area of origin | Count | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Undetermined | 10 | 23.3% | |
| 2 | Open area - outside; included are farmland, field | 6 | 14.0% | |
| 3 | Other | 4 | 9.3% | |
| 4 | Cooking area, kitchen | 3 | 7.0% | |
| 5 | Common room, den, family room, living room, lounge | 2 | 4.7% | |
| 6 | Wall assembly | 2 | 4.7% | |
| 7 | Bathroom, checkroom, lavatory, locker room | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 8 | Processing/manufacturing area, workroom | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 9 | Duct: hvac, cable, exhaust, heating, or AC | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 10 | Equipment or service area, other | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 11 | All other areas | 12 | 27.9% |
NFIRS Heat Source (HEAT_SOURC) — the physical thing that started it. Spark or ember from operating equipment, an open flame, smoking materials, or hot embers from a fireplace are the leading culprits nationwide. Here's the Horace mix.
| # | Heat source | Count | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Undetermined | 26 | 60.5% | |
| 2 | Spark, ember or flame from operating equipment | 3 | 7.0% | |
| 3 | Hot ember or ash | 2 | 4.7% | |
| 4 | Flame/torch used for lighting | 2 | 4.7% | |
| 5 | Heat source: other | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 6 | Heat from powered equipment, other | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 7 | Radiated, conducted heat from operating equipment | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 8 | Arcing | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 9 | Hot or smoldering object, other | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 10 | Heat, spark from friction | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 11 | All other sources | 4 | 9.3% |
Largest single-incident property losses reported by Horace departments in 2025. These 6 fires alone account for 100% of the city's annual total.
| # | Property loss | Type | Severity | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $60,000 | Building fires | Significant | Investigated |
| 2 | $50,000 | Building fires | Significant | Investigated |
| 3 | $5,000 | Building fires | Significant | Investigated |
| 4 | $5,000 | Outside equipment fire | Significant | Investigated |
| 5 | $3,500 | Building fires | Significant | Investigated |
| 6 | $2,500 | Camper or recreational vehicle (RV) fire | Significant | Investigated |
Per-capita rates let us compare apples to apples. Horace sits above the national average for incidents per resident.
Top 25 wildfires (1992+) in the FPA-FOD ignitions database, scaled by acres. 20,652 acres burned in this 50-mile radius. Each dot is a fire — bigger dots burned more land.
| Year | Cause | Acres | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Missing data/not specified/undetermined | 2,855 | 30.7 mi | |
| 2011 | Debris and open burning | 1,540 | 40.7 mi | |
| 2013 | Debris and open burning | 1,381 | 36.1 mi | |
| 2015 | Equipment and vehicle use | 1,200 | 30.8 mi | |
| 1996 | Arson/incendiarism | 1,155 | 22.4 mi | |
| 2011 | Missing data/not specified/undetermined | 1,122 | 45.9 mi | |
| 1999 | Debris and open burning | 990 | 45.0 mi | |
| 2003 | Debris and open burning | 943 | 29.2 mi | |
| 2006 | Debris and open burning | 927 | 49.9 mi | |
| 1992 | Debris and open burning | 910 | 28.1 mi | |
| 2012 | Equipment and vehicle use | 900 | 29.3 mi | |
| 2010 | Railroad operations and maintenance | 720 | 20.5 mi |
Top 4 ZIP codes by NFIRS incident count across 2021–2025. Each ZIP has its own fire profile — dive in for neighborhood-level context.
Six North Dakota cities with population within ±25% of Horace. Useful comparison targets — same state, similar size, different fire profile.
1 departments report to NFIRS for incidents in Horace.
A 30-minute weekend can cut your home's exposure substantially. These four checklists are a good starting point.
Numbers reflect incidents reported by participating fire departments to the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) Public Data Release for calendar year 2025. NFIRS is voluntary — about 23,000 of roughly 30,000 US fire departments report — so totals are a strong indicator, not a complete census. Per-capita comparisons use 2023 ACS population estimates. Wildland fire data complements NFIRS with NIFC and USFS perimeters. Active-fire counts come from a dated NIFC snapshot, not a live feed.