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2025 Annual Fire Report

Fires in Modesto, California

In 2025, fire departments serving Modesto responded to 1,235 fire and hazmat incidents — from cooking fires to gas leaks to a single $4.5M building blaze. Here's the full picture.

Updated Sep 27, 2026 Grade B Peak yr 2022 Stanislaus County 218,308 residents 1 reporting departments 9,805 5-yr
Total incidents
1,235
-42.4% vs 2024
Building fires
133
Residential 67% Other 33%
Property loss
$14.6M
$9.6M structure · $5.0M contents
Deaths & injuries
0 / 2
0 civilian deaths · 0 civ injuries · 2 firefighter injuries
01 The mix

What kinds of fires happen here?

Building fires lead by count. Building fires lead by dollars. Together the top five categories make up about 45% of all calls.

1,235
Total Incidents
Building fires 133 10.8%
Outside rubbish, trash or waste fire 119 9.6%
Grass fire 111 9.0%
Unauthorized burning 99 8.0%
Gas leak (natural gas or LPG) 88 7.1%
All other categories 685 55.5%
02 Seasonality

When do fires happen?

May peaks. Oct dips. Watch for the typical fall climb starting in October.

Jan 167
Feb 151
Mar 150
Apr 155
May 218
Jun 177
Jul 159
Aug 57
Sep 1
Oct 0
Nov 0
Dec 0
Fewer
More
2b Five-year trend

Year over year in Modesto

9,805 incidents 2021–2025. Peak year was 2022. $54.2M cumulative property loss. 4 civilian deaths.

YearIncidentsYoY 
2021 2,151 —
2022 2,213 +2.9%
2023 2,063 -6.8%
2024 2,143 +3.9%
2025 1,235 -42.4%
03 Cause of ignition

What sparks building fires?

For the 133 building fires Modesto departments responded to in 2025, here's how they were classified once investigators were finished.

Unintentional
31%
53
Cause undetermined
42%
71
Intentional / arson
4%
6
Equipment / heat source failure
8%
13
Under investigation
16%
27
Act of nature (lightning)
-1%
0
3b Where fires start

Where do fires start in Modesto?

NFIRS Area of Origin (AREA_ORIG) for the 1,432 building fires investigators classified across 2021–2025. The room or location where ignition occurred — kitchens, bedrooms, exterior, vehicle areas — tells you where to focus prevention.

#Area of originCountShare 
1 Undetermined 507 35.4%
2 Engine area, running gear, wheel area 150 10.5%
3 Cooking area, kitchen 88 6.1%
4 Vehicle storage area; garage, carport 66 4.6%
5 Bedroom - < 5 persons; included are jail or prison 46 3.2%
6 Bathroom, checkroom, lavatory, locker room 45 3.1%
7 Vehicle area, other 45 3.1%
8 Outside area, other 45 3.1%
9 Other 43 3.0%
10 Operator/passenger area of transportation equip. 42 2.9%
11 All other areas 355 24.8%
3c What ignited it

What actually ignited the fire?

NFIRS Heat Source (HEAT_SOURC) — the physical thing that started it. Spark or ember from operating equipment, an open flame, smoking materials, or hot embers from a fireplace are the leading culprits nationwide. Here's the Modesto mix.

#Heat sourceCountShare 
1 Undetermined 941 65.7%
2 Heat from powered equipment, other 97 6.8%
3 Heat source: other 92 6.4%
4 Arcing 49 3.4%
5 Hot or smoldering object, other 46 3.2%
6 Radiated, conducted heat from operating equipment 33 2.3%
7 Hot ember or ash 26 1.8%
8 Spark, ember or flame from operating equipment 25 1.7%
9 Heat from direct flame, convection currents 17 1.2%
10 Candle 15 1.0%
11 All other sources 91 6.4%
04 The biggest fires

8 fires · $6.8M in losses

Largest single-incident property losses reported by Modesto departments in 2025. These 8 fires alone account for 71% of the city's annual total.

# Property loss Type Severity Status
1 $4,500,000 Building fires Major Investigated
2 $500,000 Building fires Major Investigated
3 $450,000 Building fires Major Investigated
4 $450,000 Building fires Major Investigated
5 $300,000 Building fires Major Investigated
6 $280,000 Building fires Major Investigated
7 $200,000 Building fires Significant Investigated
8 $150,000 Building fires Significant Investigated
05 How Modesto compares

Modesto vs California vs the nation

Per-capita rates let us compare apples to apples. Modesto sits below the national average for incidents per resident.

5.66
Incidents per 1,000 residents
Modesto
5.66
CA avg
5.32
US avg
7.48
0.61
Building fires per 1,000 residents
Modesto
0.61
CA avg
0.32
US avg
0.85
0
Civilian fire deaths per million
Modesto
0
CA avg
2.9
US avg
5.9
5b Who gets hurt

Casualty demographics in Modesto

29 fire-related casualties recorded in NFIRS Module 11 across the 2021–2025 window. Age, gender, and severity are coarse-binned — no individual identification possible.

AgeCount 
0-9 0
10-19 4
20-29 1
30-39 9
40-49 5
50-59 8
60-69 1
70-79 1
80+ 0
Civilian vs firefighter
Civilian 14 FF 15
Gender
M 23 F 6 Unk 0
Severity (1=minor → 5=fatal)
7
1
10
2
3
3
5
4
4
5
5c Wildfires nearby

Wildfires within 50 mi of Modesto

Top 25 wildfires (1992+) in the FPA-FOD ignitions database, scaled by acres. 746,673 acres burned in this 50-mile radius. Each dot is a fire — bigger dots burned more land.

50 mi radius
YearCauseAcresDistance 
2020 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 396,624 34.3 mi
2017 Firearms and explosives use 81,826 43.1 mi
2007 Recreation and ceremony 47,760 40.3 mi
2006 Equipment and vehicle use 34,271 22.4 mi
2006 Equipment and vehicle use 25,000 26.7 mi
1992 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 18,000 42.6 mi
2001 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 14,280 48.8 mi
2018 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 12,300 2.1 mi
2009 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 12,200 29.3 mi
2018 Equipment and vehicle use 11,789 28.8 mi
2001 Arson/incendiarism 11,185 41.8 mi
2000 Missing data/not specified/undetermined 8,600 43.0 mi
5d Top ZIPs

Where in Modesto do fires concentrate?

Top 10 ZIP codes by NFIRS incident count across 2021–2025. Each ZIP has its own fire profile — dive in for neighborhood-level context.

#ZIP5-yr incidents 
1 95354 2,745
2 95350 2,171
3 95351 2,019
4 95355 1,340
5 95358 613
6 95356 586
7 95357 230
8 95307 49
9 95368 10
10 95353 8
5e Peer cities

Cities similar to Modesto

Six California cities with population within ±25% of Modesto. Useful comparison targets — same state, similar size, different fire profile.

06 First responders

Who responds in Modesto?

1 departments report to NFIRS for incidents in Modesto.

WESTPORT FPD
5160 S Carpenter RD
FDID 50065
07 Stay prepared

Before the next Red Flag day.

A 30-minute weekend can cut your home's exposure substantially. These four checklists are a good starting point.

About this data

Numbers reflect incidents reported by participating fire departments to the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) Public Data Release for calendar year 2025. NFIRS is voluntary — about 23,000 of roughly 30,000 US fire departments report — so totals are a strong indicator, not a complete census. Per-capita comparisons use 2023 ACS population estimates. Wildland fire data complements NFIRS with NIFC and USFS perimeters. Active-fire counts come from a dated NIFC snapshot, not a live feed.